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Any man who has had teenage children will tell you to be suspicious of logic, for as soon as a teenager gets the hang of it, his sense of reason seems to leave him — and doesn’t return for at least five or six years. Or, if he takes up politics, law, or economics, it may never return. “If there really were a God,” says the teenager triumphantly, “He wouldn’t let there be people starving, He wouldn’t allow Bush to kill people, and He wouldn’t make me do homework on Friday night.” But we’ve been around long enough to believe that God can do any damned thing He wants, even if it makes no sense to a 15-year-old.

Bonner, W. & Rajiva, L. (2007). Mobs, Messiahs, and Markets: Surviving the Public Spectacle in Finance and Politics

As we said, the older we get, the less we know about anything; the more facts, opinions, and ideas we collect, the less sure we are of any of them.

Bonner, W. & Rajiva, L. (2007). Mobs, Messiahs, and Markets: Surviving the Public Spectacle in Finance and Politics

The single man, on the other hand, is a desperado. Adolf Hitler and Joseph Stalin were, effectively, single. So was Alexander the Great. They had no private lives; they had perforce to make public spectacles of themselves. The single man still feels the need to be a conqueror — of women or of men — by seduction or by brute force. That is why the public generally elects family men to high office; they don’t trust the lone wolf. That may be one reason why George W. Bush — a married man — is likely to be denied the success that more notorious, and single, world improvers have had.

Bonner, W. & Rajiva, L. (2007). Mobs, Messiahs, and Markets: Surviving the Public Spectacle in Finance and Politics

We see people reading “The World Is Flat” numbly on airplanes. […] For a long time, we couldn’t bring ourselves to read the book, but finally we did. As expected, it is suitable only for children … and only for them to sit on or club each other over the head with.

Bonner, W. & Rajiva, L. (2007). Mobs, Messiahs, and Markets: Surviving the Public Spectacle in Finance and Politics

The truth is that no risk-control gimmick however complex, can protect a whole market for the simple reason that the whole market cannot outperform itself. The more people climb onto an investment platform - whether it is derivatives, dot-coms, dollars… or dirigibles - the more it creaks and cracks. [Ed. FAZ?]

Bonner, W. & Rajiva, L. (2007). Mobs, Messiahs, and Markets: Surviving the Public Spectacle in Finance and Politics

You may tear apart the baby’s rattle and see what makes the noise inside, but there is a veil covering the unseen world which not the strongest man, nor even the united strength of all the strongest men that ever lived, could tear apart. Only faith, fancy, poetry, love, romance, can push aside that curtain and view and picture the supernal beauty and glory beyond. Is it all real? Ah, VIRGINIA, in all this world there is nothing else real and abiding.

Francis Pharcellus Church

There is enough uncertainty in entrepreneurship without adding inflation, deflation, interest rates and exchange rates to the list of barriers standing in the way of innovation. The U.S. economy as guided by the Fed has seen continual asset bubbles, crashes, panics, booms and busts in the forty years since the United States left gold. It is time to diminish the role of finance and empower the role of commerce.

James G. Rickards

[…] people who are interested in making the best possible decisions rarely are confident that they have the best possible answers.

Ray Dalio

Independent

I have yet to hear about a single contemporary “independent” thinker that doesn’t actually have a circle of close friends inside of which critical thinking is abolished as a courtesy.

Writing advice

If you think that you have something to say, you should first write a (private) draft. Then, you should read it by trying to understand what the hell you were trying to say. Then rewrite it, by dropping all of the fluff and by keeping only what it was that you were trying to say. You might be surprised to find this second version is much, much shorter. You might even be surprised to find out you’re left with something not even worth saying. Most people failing to heed this advice is probably why there’s a bubble in books (also blogs etc.). And why most books are not even worth the paper they’re printed on. People that are not highly selective about the books they’ll be spending their time on (reading) are also people that are extremely deficient in thinking. Strive for clarity and don’t fool yourself because your readers (at least the intelligent ones) won’t be fooled: if you think that something you just wrote is smart/stylish/etc. it’s probably more of a sign you’re confused (and so will be your readers - at least, the intelligent ones will be confused).

Happy-Go-Lucky

When the system you are a part of is too big (and for the record, everything became too big ever since the entire humanity stopped living in groups of < 100 people not so long ago - oh, and there’s no going back) you do not even need to consciously choose immorality (or unconsciously choose what most would deem immoral) in order to do harm. Hence, the perversity of the happy-go-lucky attitude.

Self-congratulation

Disregarding any other philosophical considerations, self-congratulation is delusional simply because everyone practices it (i.e. shows how shaky a proposal it is to rely on anyone’s approval - which roughly is the ultimate underlying motivation for it).

The “middle way”?

Stating that the “middle way” should be followed is the emptiest form of wisdom. Akin to giving up completely. At best, you can speak of the “middle way” only a posteriori.

Arrogance

Some people are surprised when they find extreme arrogance in the very same person they thought of as humble and diffident. They should not be surprised at all, for if humbleness serves them any purpose, it is to show them the absurdity, vanity and lack of consistency surrounding them (in which they do not take any part). The important thing is that you will always be able to get through to such a person. The merely arrogant will never change his mind.

Culture & economy

I’ll take cultural differences leading to squabbling politicians any day over cultural affinities leading to “harmony”, cartels, collusion of interests etc.

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